As of mid-June, there is enough evidence to begin drawing conclusions about MVP and World Series candidates during a given MLB season without seeming reactionary.
However, it would be a mistake to assume that, with more than half the season still left, everything is set in stone.
Many players are MVP candidates in mid-June and don’t finish in the top 10 when the season concludes. The other side of the coin is a team like the 2019 Washington Nationals, who won the World Series despite being more than five games under .500 at this point in the season.
With that in mind, here’s a look at nine teams or players that aren’t off to great starts, but you’d be wise to bet on while their stocks are down.
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During Manny Machado’s first five seasons with the Padres, he slashed .275/.345/.495 with an .839 OPS. So it’s shocking to see him hitting .252/.312/.376 with a .688 OPS this year.
While the six-time All-Star hasn’t used it as an excuse, he has admitted that the right elbow he had surgery on last October has bothered him at times, both on the field—where he didn’t play until late April—and at the plate. .
As he moves away from his surgery, Machado feels like a safe bet to warm up at the plate. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the 31-year-old is one of the best hitters in the second half of the season.
And the idea that Machado’s best is yet to come is one of the main reasons the Padres seem so well poised to clinch one of the three wild-card spots in the National League.
Adolis García Megan Briggs//Keynote USA/Getty Images
You usually hear about the team that loses the World Series having a hangover, but the defending champion Texas Rangers haven’t been particularly inspiring through the first two and a half months of the 2024 campaign.
That said, there are some clear areas where they should improve as the season progresses:
– Adolis García is hitting .216 with a .689 OPS. He continues to produce power, as evidenced by his 13 home runs and 40 RBIs. But he hit .246 with a .777 OPS between 2021 and 2023, so his track record suggests his overall results should improve as the season progresses.
– None of the trio of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle have thrown a pitch yet this season. Even if only two of them end up being factors in 2024, Bruce Bochy’s rotation will get a major boost.
– Third baseman Josh Jung is on a rehab assignment as he recovers from a broken right wrist. He had already hit two home runs in parts of just four games before suffering the injury in April.
Texas general manager Chris Young will have a chance to make outside improvements before the July 30 trade deadline.
However, when you also factor in that catcher Jonah Heim and reliever José Leclerc have struggled, this is a team that could receive the biggest internal boost of anyone in the sport as the season progresses.
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Between 2021 and 2023, Kevin Gausman’s 2.79 FIP and 15.8 WAR ranked second among all qualified starting pitchers, according to FanGraphs. By any measure, he was one of the league’s top five starters during that three-season span.
This year, the 33-year-old has a 4.00 ERA and a 5.14 expected ERA, which is not what the Blue Jays expect from their ace. But he pitched a complete-game shutout against the Oakland Athletics on June 8, and his 3.39 FIP paints a much rosier picture of how he’s pitched overall this year.
It’s a little concerning that his fastball has seen some decline in velocity, going from 94.7 mph on average in 2023 to 93.8 in 2024. But the pitch value was 17.6 a year ago, compared with -2.8 this year.
Losing less than a full mph with your fastball shouldn’t explain that drastic drop in pitch effectiveness, leading you to believe Gausman will see better results as the season progresses.
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Considering how well the Philadelphia Phillies have played in 2024, the Atlanta Braves‘ streak of six straight NL East titles is definitely in jeopardy.
Despite losing Spencer Strider and Ronald Acun Jr. for the season, this is still a team that should handily earn one of the three wild card spots in the National League.
After some recent struggles, the Braves currently control the first wild card spot in the senior circuit, and that’s with a slew of underperforming offensive players.
Matt Olson might never top his 54-homer, 139-RBI campaign from a year ago, but the .219 batting average and .716 OPS he entered the game with on May 25 are well below what you are going to put. in a typical season.
It’s no surprise that he’s seen his batting average rise to .245, with his OPS at .771 in less than a month since then. Expect his production to skyrocket relative to what he was doing earlier in the season.
Former NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II and All-Stars Austin Riley and Orlando Arcia are all under .650 in terms of OPS. That’s just not going to last.
In addition to the likelihood of Atlanta getting much better results internally from its lineup, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is likely to take a similar approach heading into the 2021 trade deadline, when he replaced an injured Acuna by acquiring Jorge Soler , Joc Pederson and Eddie. Rosary beads.
It will be difficult to replicate the success of that trade deadline, but betting against Anthopoulos and the Braves is at your own risk.
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Christopher Morel hit 26 home runs in 388 at-bats for the Chicago Cubs a year ago, making him a particularly interesting player to discuss in the offseason.
What could this guy do if he had 500 at-bats?
If you’re looking for betting tips, don’t rely on Morel’s odds of ever winning a batting title (he’s batting .205 this season) or winning a Gold Glove at third base, as he has -8 defensive runs saved and -10. above-average outs at the hot corner this season.
However, there is too much raw power in Morel’s bat to not remain intrigued by his power potential.
While his overall season has been disappointing, the 24-year-old has 13 home runs and 40 RBIs. He’s also walking at a 12 percent pace this year, compared to 8.4 last season.
It probably won’t be this year, but the best-case scenario of Morel one day being a 40-plus home run hitter is very much alive.
Meanwhile, he’ll probably hit close to 30 home runs this season. And while he can’t get over how poor he’s been on defense, if he hits for a slightly higher average, he’ll have been quite valuable on offense.
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With Alex Bregman set to become a free agent after the season and the duo of Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez able to hit the open market after the 2025 season, the Houston Astros are closing in on a shakeup, if not something more drastic. .
However, general manager Dana Brown has repeatedly stated that the team has no intention of being sellers at this year’s trade deadline. And given the weaknesses of both the Rangers and the Seattle Mariners, they probably shouldn’t.
Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are at the peak of their respective powers, while franchise icon José Altuve remains an excellent hitter. If Bregman and/or Chas McCormick get back on track offensively, this will be a lineup capable of contending in October.
Additionally, the Astros have been hampered by injuries to their starting rotation and the poor performance of their two best relievers, Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly.
Whether it’s likely or not, you can imagine a scenario where a combination of internal fixes and some trade deadline additions help this team make one last playoff run together.
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Corbin Carroll looked like a superstar in the making a year ago, stealing 54 bases and leading the senior circuit with 10 triples, en route to winning the NL Rookie of the Year award and finishing fifth in NL MVP voting. .
Of course, he also helped the Diamondbacks make a Cinderella run to the World Series.
However, the 23-year-old is in the midst of a rough patch as a sophomore. He still has an NL-best five triples, but he’s hitting just .210 with a meager .601 OPS, which is one of the 10 worst marks among qualified players this season.
However, Carroll is too talented to continue to disappoint to this point. The possibility of him, Jordan Montgomery and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., among other underachieving D-backs, heating up dramatically could mean the Snakes are, in fact, still alive.
Elly De La Cruz Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via /Keynote USA/Getty Images
The Cincinnati Reds were a hot playoff pick heading into the 2024 season. Given that they are below .500 as of mid-June, it would be fair to say that manager David Bell’s team has been a disappointment thus far.
That said, they are still within striking distance in the NL Central and very much in contention for one of the three wild card spots in the NL.
There’s a lot to like in this starting rotation, particularly if veteran Frankie Montas starts pitching something like the young trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott.
Offensively, Elly De La Cruz has been a threat on the basepaths, while Jeimer Candelario, signed in the offseason, has bounced back from a slow start.
If president of baseball operations Nick Krall adds a power threat at first base and a designated hitter to complement a lineup that also includes Spencer Steer and Will Benson, Cincinnati should be in the playoff race in the final week of the season.
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Nick Castellanos spent the entire 2022 season trying to get on track and it never happened consistently.
Therefore, the Philadelphia Phillies may have to worry that 2024 will be a bad year for the 32-year-old, particularly when arguably their biggest current need is right-handed power production.
That said, Castellanos is a streaky hitter, and last year’s postseason results are the best example of that. But while that may be a concern when a player is doing well, the flip side is that no matter how dark things get when he struggles, he’s probably not far away from being locked up.
The two-time All-Star’s work ethic cannot be questioned, as he regularly does extra hitting work in the field before Phillies games. That alone doesn’t guarantee he’ll heat up, but after posting just a .501 OPS in April, he has an OPS over .800 through the first half of June.
Adding a right-hitting outfielder will have to be a major consideration for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski this summer as the team seeks a World Series.
However, if the Phillies add another right-handed bat and Castellanos returns to the doubles machine he can be when things are going well, the winningest team in the National League will become even scarier.
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