As long as seven- and eight-year maximum-term deals exist in NHL free agency, questionable contracts will always be delivered on July 1. This year, especially with a talented free agent class, will be no different. Let’s take a look at seven unrestricted free agents that teams should be careful to pursue this offseason.
Brady Skjei
Brady Skjei stood out during his time with the Carolina Hurricanes. Now, he’s in for a payday if the Hurricanes don’t re-sign him in the coming weeks. He finished last season with 13 goals and 47 points in 80 games and logged just over 21 minutes of ice time per game. At worst, he’s a second-pair defenseman, but he can play higher up in the lineup.
What will help Skjei this summer is that there aren’t many quality left-handed defensemen available in free agency. Nikita Zadorov is probably his main competition, but they are two completely different defensemen, so that might not affect Skjei’s market much. That means any team looking for a left-handed shooter who can move the puck efficiently will target Skjei.
Evolving Hockey has Skjei projected on a seven-year deal with a cap hit of $7.498 million, while AFP Analytics sees him signing for five years with a cap hit of $7.465 million. Five years might be tolerable for Skjei, but still, he just turned 30 in March. A five- to seven-year pact for a defenseman already on the wrong side of 30 seems like a problematic contract waiting to happen.
Matt Duchene
Matt Duchene was a feel-good story for the Dallas Stars this season after being purchased by the Nashville Predators last summer. He had one of the NHL’s best value contracts in 2023-24 (one year, $3 million). But now he could get one of the worst contracts of the summer if the Stars don’t re-sign him.
Duchene is still a good player, even a very good one. He finished with 25 goals and 65 points in 80 games this season, so you can’t ask for much more than that on a one-year deal with a $3 million cap hit. None of Duchene’s underlying numbers suggest that a massive decline in his game is imminent, but he’s 33 years old and you never know when he might start a slide.
There is a large discrepancy between the AFP and Evolving Hockey contract projections. AFP has Duchene getting a three-year deal with a $4.312 million cap hit. That’s certainly acceptable, but given his resume, he seems like a real bargain. Evolving Hockey has Duchene signing for three years and $7.046 million a year, and I think that’s closer to what he’ll get. For that price I would stay away from it. Even over three years, that’s a significant cap hit for a 33-year-old player.
Samuel Reinhart
Talk about a time to have a career year. Sam Reinhart put up outrageous numbers with the Florida Panthers, finishing with 57 goals and 94 points in 82 games. Those 57 goals broke his career record and he will capitalize on that. If he doesn’t re-sign with the Panthers, he will likely be the highest-paid UFA this summer.
The problem here is that Reinhart is highly unlikely to repeat his 2023-24 season. He shot 24.5 percent and is a 15.6 percent shooter for his career, which means regression awaits him next season. Reinhart has proven in his career that he can score 30 goals and close to a point per game, but the price of his next contract will be worth much more than that.
Related: 9 UFA Contracts Predicted for 2024 Free Agency
AFP has Reinhart projected on an eight-year deal with a cap hit of $11.284 million (eight years seems to assume he’ll stay with the Panthers). Evolution Hockey’s projection is similar, as they have Reinhart signing for seven years and $10.89 million per year.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers were able to get him in a smaller number because 1) there are no state income taxes in Florida. Two) There’s the hometown discount or all that, especially since they’re in the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row. But if he hits the open market, his next contract will likely be extraordinary. Anything with an eight-figure cap hit is going to be problematic, and it’s unlikely that any team interested in him can avoid signing him for that.
Elias Lindholm
If there is a candidate for the worst potential contract handed out on July 1, it is Elias Lindholm. His play has dropped significantly since he scored 42 goals and 82 points in 2021-22. Last season, he finished with just 15 goals and 44 points in 79 games between the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames.
Although Lindholm played well in the playoffs for the Canucks, don’t let that fool you. His underlying numbers have taken a sharp decline over the past two seasons. That drop is best visualized when looking at his career goals above Evolving Hockey’s Above Replacement Grid (GAR):
Elias Lindholm’s career GAR chart (via Evolving Hockey)
One thing for sure is that his 2021-22 season was an outlier. It was probably a product of playing in line with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, who also had career years. But his GAR falling into the negative range last season instead of climbing back up should be a big red flag for any team interested in Lindholm.
Evolving Hockey has Lindholm projected on a seven-year deal with a cap hit of $7.935 million, while AFP has him on a five-year deal with a cap hit of $6.765 million. I would stay away from him at any of those prices, because it looks like his best days might be behind him.
Brandon Montour
Like Skjei with the Hurricanes, Montour has excelled during his time with the Panthers. He posted a career-high 16 goals and 73 points in 80 games in 2022-23 and has averaged 50 points per 82 games in his three-plus seasons with the Panthers.
Montour has earned his payday, but there’s a good chance any team that signs him (if it’s not the Panthers) will overpay for him. AFP has Montour projected on a six-year deal with a $7.7 million cap hit, while Evolving Hockey has him on a three-year deal with a $6.483 million cap hit.
The Evolving Hockey deal is perfectly reasonable for Montour. If that’s what he achieves, the team that signs him shouldn’t have many problems moving forward. But if he gets six years and $7.7 million annually — which seems more likely — that could cause problems down the road, even with the cap projected to continue solid growth in the coming years.
Montour is a good player, but $7.7 million annually is money for a top-level defenseman. Is he? I would say not. Plus, he’s never been that productive in his career outside of Florida, so would that continue on another team? That’s a good question too.
Dakota Joshua
Dakota Joshua had a great year, producing at a clip of 23 goals in 82 games. However, his microstats suggest that his 23-goal pace was probably a fluke. He ranked in the 90th percentile in goals, but all of his shooting metrics were in the red. Plus, she shot an unsustainable 21.4 percent, so there was definitely some luck in her big season:
Microstats 2023-24 by Dakota Joshua (5v5). Via JFresh, data tracked by Corey Sznajder (@shutdownline)
Joshua’s contract projections from the AFP and Evolving Hockey are not particularly onerous. Evolving Hockey has him signing a two-year deal with a $2.049 million cap hit, while AFP has him earning a four-year deal with a $3.252 million cap hit.
A two-year deal for Joshua isn’t a problem, but I can see what signing him for four years could be like, especially since I don’t think what he did this year was sustainable. Many quality forwards in the bottom six available in this year’s UFA class have the track record to suggest their results are sustainable, so I’d stay away from Joshua if you’re a team looking to bolster their bottom six.
Nikita Zadorov
I love everything about Zadorov’s game. He is a physical defensive back who actually achieves excellent defensive results, which is not always the case for blueliners with his makeup. He not only defends well, but he is also a very underrated puck-moving defenseman, although he doesn’t score many points.
Because the market for defensemen like Zadorov is so thin this summer, I would bet money that some team will end up overpaying for the 6-foot-6, 240-pound defenseman. His contract projections aren’t terrible: three years and just over $4 million annually from Evolving Hockey and five years and a cap hit of just over $5.2 million from AFP.
Three years and $4 million annually appears to be the lower limit of what Zadorov will get this offseason if he tests the market and doesn’t return to the Canucks. Although the AFP projection is closer to what I think he’ll get in free agency, I wouldn’t be surprised if he got more.
Frank Seravalli has hinted on a couple of episodes of DFO Rundown that Zadorov could get a six-year contract worth around $6 million annually. Would that be the worst contract ever awarded in free agency? No, but for a player who plays a tough game like Zadorov, the back half of that deal could look pretty ugly if he starts to decline. As much as I like what he brings to the table, I would refrain from giving him a 6×6 offer.
We’ll see what July 1 brings, but there will be some poor contracts delivered. That’s the nature of free agency. Will these be the worst? Time will tell.
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